We asked ChatGPT 4 if spot Bitcoin ETFs are already priced in

A highly expected approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has dominated the cryptocurrency market narrative in the last months. Investors speculate whether this event could increase the demand for Bitcoin (BTC), positively affecting its price.

Particularly, BTC price surged following two different rumors starting on two consecutive Mondays on October 16 and October 23. The first rumor started after unverified “breaking news” of BlackRock’s ETF approval that proved to be false.

The second happened with another supposed “breaking news” of the ticker of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF being added to DTCC’s list — which was later revealed to be there since August 2023.

GPT-4 API bot output. Source: Finbold

Notably, the bullish case defended by ChatGPT considers the effect of Bitcoin Futures ETF’s approval by the SEC in October 2021, just one month before BTC’s all-time high at $69,000. It is important to say that Bitcoin was already in a bull market at that time, and much was already priced in.

“Actual market capitalization after approval would depend largely on how many investors the ETFs attract and how the broader crypto market reacts. Considering the effect of Bitcoin futures ETFs approval, which led to significant growth, we can expect quite a significant surge. The overall context of the crypto market and macroeconomic factors would also have an impact.”

Additionally, this post-approval price action has also marked the start of a two-year bear market, with massive sell-offs by institutional investors, Bitcoin miners, and retailers that have accumulated BTC months before, following the new trend.

In summary, artificial intelligence expects an increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization post-approval, but “quantifying the exact increase is challenging due to various influence factors,” in GPT-4’s words. It believes it is prudent to expect volatility around the time of the announcement, and investors should keep an eye on broader market trends to make decisions.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.