The general cryptocurrency market has been on a bullish momentum in recent weeks, led by Bitcoin (BTC), with anticipation that the positive gains will likely continue, backed by factors such as favorable regulations.
Amid the anticipation, crypto analyst AlanSantana in a TradingView post on November 29, suggested that the market appears to be hanging in the balance as technical indicators suggest a potential showdown between bullish and bearish forces.
Despite a generally positive technical picture marked by rising prices, new highs, and trading above moving averages, the analyst emphasized the need to remain vigilant, noting that the market, known for its volatility, has shown a history of swift reversals.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
“While the chart technicals are definitely bullish, things can always change. Change comes after a prolonged period of seeing the same. Change is always present and at work, it can be happening behind the scenes though so it might not be visible on the chart,” he said.
Historical correlations
Reflecting on the situation in November 2022, when Bitcoin hit a multi-year low, the analyst noted that the technicals were overwhelmingly bearish. However, Bitcoin defied these signals, initiating a reversal that led to a robust recovery and a subsequent bullish cycle.
At the same time, the current scenario presents a strong bullish bias, with the weekly chart indicating room for additional growth. Nevertheless, a key resistance level, previously a support level in early to mid-2022, is now being challenged.
The trading specialist also shared the potential bearish signals, citing the recent news about potential criminal charges on Binance as a cause for concern. The fact that authorities waited for over four months before taking action is viewed as a bearish signal, raising questions about the longevity of Bitcoin’s bullish wave.
Regarding market movements, the influx of stablecoins into exchanges for buying Bitcoin and other altcoins is noted. However, the simultaneous movement of significant amounts of Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and other major altcoins into exchanges suggests that whales might be preparing to unload, adding a bearish undertone to the current market sentiment.
The Bitcoin ETF hype
Furthermore, the analysis focused on upcoming events, such as the halving event, which historically triggered a correction in Bitcoin’s price before rallying. He also discussed the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the analyst cautioning against the excessive hype surrounding it.
Drawing parallels with past events like the Ethereum Merge, the expert suggested that intense hype often precedes bearish outcomes.
“Money. They say billions and billions and billions and billions and more will be coming in due to these ETFs, really? Here is the thing, these ETFs, these “conventional trading vehicles” are not going to be selling Bitcoins to their clients; they are going to be selling shares, coupons, digits on a screen or what not. If they need Bitcoins, they are buying it now or bought them long ago to later use as back-up for their customers funds,” he added.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is targeting reclaiming the $38,000 mark. By press time, the maiden cryptocurrency was valued at $37,728, with daily losses of less than 1%.
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