The cryptocurrency market, known for its cyclical nature, often sees Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) taking the lead.
Amid the current bearish sentiment, recent analysis suggests that Ethereum’s past price performance could offer crucial insights into when Bitcoin might reach its next major peak.
In an X post on June 28, crypto analyst CryptoCon shared data from analysis platform Glassnode, detailing Ethereum’s price trends following cycle lows in August 2015, December 2018, and June 2022. This data highlights three distinct cycles, revealing significant growth and retracement patterns for ETH over time.
Ethereum price performance since cycle low chart. Source: Glassnode/CryptoCon
The first cycle, which started in August 2015, shows a dramatic rise in Ethereum’s price, peaking significantly before entering a correction phase. Cycle two, beginning in December 2018, mirrors a similar pattern of rapid price appreciation followed by a correction. The current cycle, starting in June 2022, is in progress. As of June 2024, Ethereum’s price has yet to surpass its all-time highs, indicating that the cycle is still unfolding.
Next Bitcoin and Ethereum top
By aligning the cycle lows, a pattern emerges: Major tops for Ethereum’s first two cycles occurred approximately 30 months after their respective cycle lows. If this pattern holds, the current cycle suggests a significant top for Ethereum — and potentially Bitcoin — around November 2024.
“Major tops for ETH in cycles 1 and 2 line up for the significant top in this cycle to take place in November 2024. ETH hasn’t even managed to surpass previous ATHs yet. Crypto is not finished and still on track,” the analyst said.
The analysis reveals a notable correlation between Ethereum’s cycles and potential market tops. The cycles’ major tops align consistently, hinting at a predictive trend.
Impact of Ethereum ETF
In the meantime, attention remains on Ethereum, considering the upstart start in trading for the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Reports indicate the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve the spot Ethereum ETF as soon as July 4.
Indeed, the ETF will likely have a general impact on the crypto market. For instance, in an X post on June 29, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that Ethereum’s ETF could be a significant event despite the current pessimism and downward trends in altcoins.
Drawing parallels to historical moments like the Bitcoin ETF, Poppe believes Ethereum’s ETF might have a substantial impact due to Ethereum’s unique attributes, such as staked Ether and its deflationary model.
Ethereum price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
He anticipates that a successful ETF could increase liquidity and developer interest in Ethereum and related projects like Arbitrum and Optimism, potentially reversing recent market trends. Poppe remains optimistic about Ethereum’s potential to lead a broader crypto market reversal driven by economic factors and cyclical trends.
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $60,861, reflecting a daily loss of over 1%. In contrast, Ethereum continues to face bearish sentiments, trading at $3,389, showing a 1.5% decline over the past 24 hours.
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